Dating Theory Calculator (37% Rule)

Your details

The total number of different people you expect to seriously date in your lifetime search. Include past dates if you are currently dating.
If you are willing to accept "good enough" rather than only the single best, your success probability increases substantially.
The probability that the person you pick at the end of your exploration phase will not want to date you seriously. A higher rejection risk lowers your overall odds.
Used to estimate how long the exploration phase will last in calendar time. Leave at 0 to skip the time estimate.
per year
If you have already been dating for a while, enter how many people you have dated so far. The calculator will tell you where you are in the optimal strategy.
Explore before committingReasonable odds
7dates

Date this many people as a learning phase, then commit to the next person who beats them all.

Probability of finding your ideal match38.4%
Risk your best match appears in the exploration phase35%
Success probability after rejection risk38.4%
Exploration phase duration1.8years
Where you stand right nowYou are at the start. Date 7 people to complete the exploration phase.
38.4% %
Low odds<20Theoretical best20-37Good odds37-55Excellent55+

Reject the first 7 people, then commit to the next who is better than all of them.

  • Date the first 7 people purely to set your internal benchmark, then commit to the next person who beats everyone you have seen.
  • This strategy gives you a 38.4% chance of landing your best possible match from a pool of 20 people.
  • There is a 35% chance your best match appears during the learning window. This is the unavoidable cost of gathering information before committing.

Next stepRemember that holding out for perfection is risky. Broadening your criteria to "top 3" roughly doubles your success probability for the same strategy.

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