Implied Probability Calculator

Your details

Choose the format that matches the odds you have.
Negative values (e.g. -110) indicate the favourite; positive values (e.g. +150) indicate the underdog.
Turn on to enter both sides of a market and see the no-vig fair probabilities.
Optional. Enter your own assessed chance of this outcome winning. The calculator will tell you whether the line has positive expected value.
%
Implied probabilitySlight negative value
52.38%

The win probability baked into the odds

Decimal odds1.909
American odds-110
Fractional odds2381/2619
Your edge-0.38%
Breakeven win rate52.38%
Expected value per $100 bet-0.73
52.38% %
Heavy underdog<20%Underdog20%-40%Near even40%-60%Favourite60%-80%Heavy favourite80%+

Implied probability: 52.4% (breakeven win rate)

  • The odds imply a 52.4% chance of winning. That means the bookmaker expects this outcome to lose 47.6% of the time.
  • Your estimate (52.0%) is lower than the implied probability, meaning the line has negative expected value for you. EV per $100: $-0.73.

Next stepCompare the implied probability to your own research-based estimate. If your probability is consistently higher than what the odds imply, you have a betting edge over time.

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