Lottery Odds and Expected Value Calculator

Your details

Choose a well-known lottery or configure a custom game below.
The advertised jackpot (annuity value). Used for expected value calculations.
USD
Winners who take the cash option typically receive about 60% of the advertised jackpot. Adjust to match the current offer.
%
Combined federal + state marginal rate applied to the lump-sum. US federal top rate is 37%; state rates vary.
%
Standard Powerball and Mega Millions tickets cost $2. Some games offer $1 or $3 options.
USD
Number of tickets you plan to purchase for this draw.
Used to calculate lifetime jackpot odds. Assumes one ticket per week for this many years.
years
Jackpot oddsNegative expected value
1 in 292.20 million

1 in X chance of matching all numbers for the jackpot

Odds of winning anything1 in 25
Expected value per ticket (after tax)-$1.54 per ticket
Total spend$10.00
Lifetime jackpot odds (1 ticket/week)0.0004% (20 yrs weekly)
Years of weekly play for 50% jackpot chance3,894,972 years
_evPerTicketRaw-1.54
_jackpotOddsRaw292,201,338
-1.54 USD EV
Very negative EV<-2Negative EV-2--1Near breakeven-1-0Positive EV0+

Playing Powerball: jackpot odds are 1 in 292.20 million.

  • Your jackpot odds are 1 in 292.20 million. To put that in perspective, you are roughly 250 times more likely to be struck by lightning in a given year.
  • The expected value is -$1.54 per ticket after the 60% lump-sum discount and 37% tax. Almost all lotteries have a negative expected value.
  • Buying more tickets improves your odds proportionally, but does not change the expected value per ticket. Ten tickets gives you 10x the odds at 10x the cost.
  • Lifetime odds improve with years of play, but even 50 years of weekly tickets rarely moves the jackpot probability above 1%.

Next stepTreat lottery tickets as entertainment, not an investment. The expected return per dollar spent is far below any conventional savings or investment vehicle.

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