Intrinsic Value Calculator
Estimate what a stock is truly worth using two proven approaches: Benjamin Graham's revised intrinsic value formula and a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. Enter the company's earnings or free cash flow, your growth and discount rate assumptions, and see the calculated intrinsic value alongside the margin of safety and upside versus the current price. The step panel walks through every line of arithmetic with your actual numbers.
What is intrinsic value?
Intrinsic value is the calculated worth of a business based on its fundamentals rather than what the market is paying for it today. Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, defined it as "the value which is justified by the facts" such as earnings, dividends, growth prospects and financial strength. When a stock trades below its intrinsic value, it may offer a margin of safety; when it trades above, investors are essentially betting on continued optimism. Both the Graham formula and the discounted cash flow model are tools for estimating this underlying worth, and each has its own strengths and limitations.
The Benjamin Graham formula
Graham's original formula was V = EPS * (8.5 + 2g), where 8.5 is the baseline P/E ratio he assigned to a company with zero growth and g is the expected annual earnings growth rate over the next seven to ten years. He later revised the formula to account for changing interest rates: V = EPS * (8.5 + 2g) * (4.4 / Y), where 4.4% was the prevailing AAA corporate bond yield when he published the formula and Y is the current AAA bond yield. This adjustment makes the result sensitive to the interest rate environment: as bond yields rise, the formula lowers the implied fair value of the stock, reflecting that investors require a higher return from equities when risk-free rates are higher. The formula is best used as a quick screen, not a definitive answer.
Discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation
A DCF model builds intrinsic value from the ground up. You project how much free cash flow the company will generate in each future year, then discount each of those figures back to today using a required rate of return (often the weighted average cost of capital, or WACC). After the projection period, you assume the business continues to grow at a stable "terminal" rate forever and add the discounted value of that perpetuity. The sum of the discounted cash flows and the discounted terminal value is the intrinsic value per share. The model is more granular than Graham's formula but also more sensitive to your assumptions. A 1% change in the discount rate or the terminal growth rate can move the result by 15-30%, so DCF outputs should always be treated as a range, not a precise number.
Margin of safety and how to use these results
Graham's central investing principle was to buy with a margin of safety: a buffer between the price you pay and your estimate of intrinsic value. A 20-30% margin of safety is a commonly cited minimum threshold because it absorbs errors in your growth and discount rate assumptions. If the margin is negative, the market is already pricing in at least as much as your model implies, and you are taking on valuation risk. Neither method replaces a qualitative assessment of the business: competitive position, management quality, balance sheet strength and industry dynamics all affect whether today's earnings and cash flows are a good guide to the future. Use these calculators as a starting point for further research, not as a final buy or sell signal.
Margin of safety interpretation
| Margin of safety | Interpretation | Typical action |
|---|---|---|
| Below 0% | Overvalued | Avoid or monitor |
| 0-10% | Fairly valued | Watch for a pullback |
| 10-20% | Modest cushion | Consider partial position |
| 20-30% | Good value | Classic Graham buy zone |
| 30-50% | Deep value | Strong candidate if thesis is sound |
| Above 50% | Potential value trap | Verify quality - may be cheap for a reason |
Benjamin Graham recommended buying only when the stock price offers a meaningful discount to intrinsic value. Buffett also applied this concept to protect against estimation errors.
Frequently asked questions
Which method should I use, Graham or DCF?
Use Graham's formula for a fast, back-of-envelope screen when you want to compare many stocks quickly. Use DCF when you are doing deeper research on a specific company and want to model different growth scenarios. For most analyses, running both and seeing whether they tell a similar story is more informative than relying on either alone.
What is a good margin of safety?
Graham typically required a 20-50% margin of safety depending on the quality of the business and the reliability of the estimate. A higher margin of safety is appropriate when the future is uncertain or when the company is in a cyclical or capital-intensive industry. For high-quality businesses with predictable earnings, some investors accept a lower threshold of 10-15%.
What discount rate (WACC) should I use?
Most value investors use a discount rate between 8% and 12%, depending on the risk profile of the business. For large, stable companies (blue chips), 8-10% is common. For smaller or faster-growing businesses with more uncertainty, 10-15% reflects the additional risk. Some investors simply use 10% as a hurdle rate to keep comparisons consistent across stocks.
What does the terminal growth rate represent?
The terminal growth rate is the rate at which you assume the business will grow forever after the projection period. It must be lower than the discount rate or the math produces an infinite value. A common choice is 2-3%, roughly in line with long-run nominal GDP growth, because no company can grow faster than the economy indefinitely.
What if the intrinsic value comes out negative?
A negative result from Graham's formula usually means the company has negative or very low EPS. The formula is designed for profitable, growing businesses; it does not work well for loss-making companies. For DCF, a negative value implies free cash flow is not expected to become positive within the projection period, which is a strong caution signal.
How accurate is the intrinsic value from these formulas?
Neither formula is precise. They are tools for forming a reasoned estimate, not for calculating truth. Analysts who use the same formula with slightly different growth assumptions can arrive at intrinsic values that differ by 30-50%. The margin of safety concept exists precisely because of this uncertainty. Think of intrinsic value as a range, and only buy when the price is well below the low end of that range.