Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Calculator
Enter a company's free cash flow, two-stage growth rates, discount rate, and balance sheet figures to calculate its intrinsic value. You get the fair value per share, margin of safety, enterprise value, and a full 10-year cash flow projection. Adjust any input and every output updates instantly.
What is Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis?
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is a valuation method that estimates the intrinsic value of an investment by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today's dollars. The core idea is simple: a dollar received in the future is worth less than a dollar today because of the opportunity cost of waiting (and risk). By applying a discount rate, usually the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), to each year's projected cash flow, you convert future dollars into present value dollars that can be summed and compared to the current market price. DCF is widely regarded as the most theoretically sound method of valuation and is used by institutional investors, private equity firms, and CFOs for both stock valuation and project appraisal.
How to use this DCF calculator
Start with the company's most recent free cash flow (operating cash flow minus capital expenditure, found on the cash flow statement). Set Stage 1 growth (years 1-5) to your best estimate of near-term growth, often anchored to analyst consensus or recent trends. Stage 2 growth (years 6-10) should generally be lower, reflecting business maturation. The terminal growth rate represents perpetual growth beyond year 10 and is typically set to 2-3%, near long-run nominal GDP growth. The discount rate (WACC) captures the required return given the investment's risk, typically 8-12% for established companies. After entering cash, debt, and shares outstanding, the calculator outputs the fair value per share and compares it to your current price to show the margin of safety. The 10-year projection table and chart help you see exactly how each year's cash flow contributes.
The two-stage DCF formula explained
This calculator uses a standard two-stage DCF model. Stage 1 (years 1-5) and Stage 2 (years 6-10) both apply the formula PV = FCF_yr / (1 + r)^yr, where r is the discount rate. Each year's projected cash flow is discounted by the compounding effect of time and risk. After year 10, a terminal value is calculated using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_yr10 x (1 + g) / (r - g). This terminal value is also discounted back to present value. Enterprise Value (EV) equals the sum of all 10 discounted cash flows plus the discounted terminal value. Equity Value is then derived by adding cash and subtracting debt from EV. Dividing by shares outstanding gives the fair value per share.
DCF sensitivity and margin of safety
The biggest limitation of DCF is its sensitivity to inputs, particularly the discount rate and terminal growth rate. A 1 percentage point change in either can shift the fair value by 20-40% or more. This is why a margin of safety is essential: by only buying at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value (typically 20-30% or more, as taught by Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett), you protect yourself against overly optimistic assumptions. For high-growth companies where terminal value makes up 70-80% of enterprise value, carefully stress-test your terminal growth rate and discount rate assumptions before acting on any valuation.
Discount Rate (WACC) Guide by Company Type
| Company Type | Typical WACC Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Large-cap blue chip (e.g. consumer staples) | 6% - 9% | Low business risk, stable cash flows |
| Established growth company (e.g. software) | 8% - 12% | Moderate risk, predictable revenue |
| Mid-cap diversified business | 9% - 14% | Moderate-to-high risk |
| Small-cap or emerging growth | 12% - 18% | Higher uncertainty and execution risk |
| Speculative or early-stage company | 18% - 30%+ | Very high risk, unpredictable cash flows |
Common WACC ranges used by analysts. Higher risk businesses require a higher discount rate.
Frequently asked questions
What is free cash flow (FCF) and where do I find it?
Free cash flow is the cash a business generates after paying for capital expenditures needed to maintain or expand its asset base. It equals operating cash flow minus capital expenditures (CapEx). You will find both figures on the company's cash flow statement, typically filed quarterly and annually with regulators. Some financial data providers like Morningstar, Macrotrends, or Bloomberg calculate and display FCF directly.
What discount rate should I use?
The discount rate should reflect the riskiness of the investment's cash flows. The standard approach is to use the WACC, which blends the cost of equity (estimated with the Capital Asset Pricing Model) and the after-tax cost of debt, weighted by capital structure. For blue-chip companies, WACC is often 7-10%. For riskier businesses it may be 12-20% or higher. As a practical shortcut, many analysts use 10% as a baseline for established companies, adjusting up or down for specific risk factors.
What terminal growth rate should I use?
The terminal growth rate represents how fast you expect cash flows to grow forever after year 10. Because no company can outgrow the economy indefinitely, this rate is typically set to 2-3%, close to long-run nominal GDP growth. Using rates above 4-5% results in terminal values that imply the company will eventually be larger than the entire economy, which is unrealistic. The terminal growth rate must also be less than the discount rate for the Gordon Growth Model formula to produce a positive, finite terminal value.
What is a good margin of safety?
A margin of safety is the percentage by which the current price is below your calculated fair value. Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, popularized the concept of requiring at least a 30-50% margin of safety to protect against errors in your assumptions and unforeseen risks. In practice, many modern investors accept 15-25% for high-quality businesses with predictable cash flows, and require larger buffers for more uncertain situations. There is no universal rule; the appropriate margin depends on your confidence in your assumptions and your risk tolerance.
Why does terminal value make up such a large share of enterprise value?
In a two-stage DCF, the terminal value often accounts for 60-80% of the total enterprise value, especially for growth companies. This is mathematically correct: compounding growth over many years produces large cash flows far in the future, and those flows still have significant present value even after discounting. It underscores why the terminal growth rate assumption is so consequential. To reduce your reliance on the terminal value, you can shorten the terminal growth rate or use a conservative exit multiple approach instead of the Gordon Growth Model.
What is the difference between enterprise value and equity value?
Enterprise value (EV) is the total value of the business including both its equity and its debt. It represents what an acquirer would pay for the whole company. Equity value (also called market capitalization for public companies) is the value belonging to shareholders alone. You convert from EV to equity value by adding cash (which reduces the effective purchase price for a buyer) and subtracting debt (which a buyer inherits). Dividing equity value by shares outstanding gives the per-share intrinsic value.
When is DCF not the best valuation method?
DCF works best for businesses with predictable, positive cash flows. It is harder to apply to early-stage companies with no revenue, cyclical businesses where cash flows vary dramatically with economic cycles, and financial firms like banks where free cash flow is harder to define. For those cases, analysts often supplement or replace DCF with relative valuation multiples (P/E, EV/EBITDA, Price-to-Book) or sum-of-the-parts analysis.