White Christmas Calculator
Select your city to see the historical probability of waking up to a White Christmas, defined as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. You also get the odds of deeper snow (5 or 10 inches), a likelihood rating, and tips on which US cities are most reliably snowy at Christmas. Probabilities are based on NOAA climate normals spanning three decades of weather records.
What is a White Christmas?
A White Christmas has a precise meteorological definition: at least 1 inch (2.5 cm) of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. Simple precipitation on the day itself does not count - it is about snow cover, not snowfall during the day. This definition is used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service when they calculate historical probabilities. Some people informally use the term to mean any snowfall on December 25, but the 1-inch ground cover standard is the widely accepted scientific benchmark.
How the probabilities are calculated
The probabilities shown here come from NOAA climate normals, which are 30-year averages of climatological data collected at thousands of weather stations across the United States. For each station, researchers count how many of the 30 December 25ths in the base period had at least 1, 5, or 10 inches of snow on the ground, then divide by 30 to get a percentage. A city with a 67% probability had snow cover on roughly 20 out of 30 Christmas mornings in the base period. These figures represent historical tendency, not a forecast - they tell you how often a White Christmas has happened, not whether this particular year will deliver one. Year-to-year variability in weather patterns means any individual Christmas can differ substantially from the long-run average.
Regional patterns across the US
The geography of White Christmas probability closely follows elevation, latitude, and proximity to moisture sources. The highest probabilities are in the Great Lakes snowbelt (Marquette MI, Sault Ste. Marie MI, Wausau WI), the northern Minnesota-North Dakota corridor (International Falls, Duluth, Fargo), and the interior Pacific Northwest mountains (Stampede Pass WA). Northern New England cities such as Burlington VT, Caribou ME, and Montpelier VT are also reliable. The northern Rockies - Bozeman MT, Sheridan WY, Kalispell MT - have high odds thanks to elevation and cold-air pooling. Across the mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and front range cities, probabilities are moderate: Denver sits near 50%, Chicago near 40%, Boston near 23%. The Pacific coast, the Gulf South, and much of the Sun Belt rarely or never see ground snow cover at Christmas.
Planning a White Christmas trip
If a snowy holiday is a priority, cities with 90% or higher probability offer the most reliable experience. International Falls, Marquette, and Sault Ste. Marie in the Great Lakes region almost always have snow cover, and the mountain towns of northern Montana and Wyoming are similarly dependable. For travellers who want both white snow and accessibility, Minneapolis, Duluth, Green Bay, and Burlington are well-connected by air and have strong historical odds. Checking a 7-day National Weather Service forecast in mid-December is the best way to refine a decision for a specific year, since a warm spell can erase ground cover even in historically snowy cities. These probabilities are long-run averages and no substitute for a current forecast.
White Christmas probability by major US city
| City | State | Prob. (1 in) | Prob. (5 in) | Prob. (10 in) | Likelihood |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette, MI | MI | 100% | 86% | 71% | Very likely |
| International Falls, MN | MN | 100% | 73% | 53% | Very likely |
| Sault Ste. Marie, MI | MI | 100% | 80% | 53% | Very likely |
| Stampede Pass, WA | WA | 100% | 100% | 96% | Very likely |
| Duluth, MN | MN | 97% | 63% | 43% | Very likely |
| Caribou, ME | ME | 97% | 77% | 57% | Very likely |
| Wausau, WI | WI | 93% | 54% | 25% | Very likely |
| Montpelier, VT | VT | 93% | 72% | 41% | Very likely |
| Minneapolis, MN | MN | 73% | 30% | 13% | Very likely |
| Green Bay, WI | WI | 77% | 40% | 3% | Very likely |
| Denver, CO | CO | 50% | 13% | 7% | Possible |
| Chicago, IL | IL | 40% | 7% | 0% | Possible |
| Cleveland, OH | OH | 50% | 17% | 0% | Possible |
| Salt Lake City, UT | UT | 53% | 13% | 3% | Possible |
| Boston, MA | MA | 23% | 17% | 3% | Unlikely |
| New York, NY | NY | 10% | 7% | 0% | Unlikely |
| Washington, DC | DC | 13% | 7% | 0% | Unlikely |
| Seattle, WA | WA | 7% | 0% | 0% | Very unlikely |
| Dallas, TX | TX | 0% | 0% | 0% | Very unlikely |
| Los Angeles, CA | CA | 0% | 0% | 0% | Very unlikely |
Historical probabilities based on NOAA climate normals. A White Christmas is defined as at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25.
Frequently asked questions
What counts as a White Christmas?
The standard meteorological definition, used by NOAA and the National Weather Service, is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25. Snowfall during the day itself does not count unless it accumulates to that depth. A dusting of a quarter-inch is not a White Christmas by this definition.
Are these probabilities a forecast for this year?
No. The percentages are historical averages based on 30 years of weather records. They tell you how often a White Christmas has occurred, not whether this specific year will have one. For an actual prediction, check the National Weather Service (weather.gov) or a local forecast within 7 days of December 25.
Which US city has the highest chance of a White Christmas?
Several cities have essentially 100% historical probability: Marquette and Sault Ste. Marie in Michigan, International Falls and Hibbing in Minnesota, and Stampede Pass in Washington. Among larger, more accessible cities, Duluth MN (97%), Burlington VT (77%), Minneapolis MN (73%), and Green Bay WI (77%) rank among the most reliable.
Does climate change affect White Christmas odds?
Yes. Research by Climate Central and others shows that White Christmas probabilities have declined in many US cities over recent decades as December temperatures have warmed. The probabilities here are based on older climate normal periods and may overstate current odds for some locations, particularly in mid-latitude and lower-elevation cities.
What is the difference between a 1-inch, 5-inch, and 10-inch White Christmas?
One inch is the official threshold for the meteorological definition of a White Christmas - enough to cover the ground and give a snowy appearance. Five inches represents noticeable accumulation where outdoor activities like snowshoeing or sledding become practical. Ten inches is deep snow that would affect travel and create a truly winter-wonderland atmosphere. The probability drops sharply at each level, even in historically snowy cities.
Why does Seattle have such a low probability despite being in the Pacific Northwest?
Seattle sits at low elevation in a maritime climate zone. Onshore flow from the Pacific Ocean keeps winter temperatures mild, and snow events are relatively rare even in December. The mountains to the east (such as Stampede Pass) accumulate heavy snow, but the city itself rarely sees sustained ground cover. The same maritime effect suppresses snow in Portland OR, San Francisco CA, and most Pacific coastal cities.